Is Japanese raider Mer De Glace a false Caulfield Cup second favourite?

This crop of Japanese raiders on paper look to be some of the best since Delta Blues and Pop Rock graced our shores in 2006 and Mer De Glace certainly fits the bill.

Mer De Grace has raced five times in 2019 for five wins, undefeated up to Group 3 level. A get back run on type most of the time, Mer De Glace has an explosive turn of foot over the staying trip and looks fit to contest any Group race around the world on recent efforts.

So is Mer De Glace a genuine $10 chance having landed in Australia in perfect order or are there factors that we need to consider before betting?

Order of Entry
Mer De Glace sits at 18th in the current order of entry and is a confirmed runner for the race having landed in Australia. There is nothing to worry about in terms of order of entry. Mer De Glace will carry 55.5kg in the Caulfield Cup

In a career spanning 17 runs, Mer De Glace is yet to be stretched out over the 2400m distance. While you can hold a slight concern at the distance, the reality is the horse has been dominant through the line over 2200m so there seems little doubt about the distance for this horse.

Track Conditions
Last year, the decision was made to fully aerate the track the night before the Caulfield Cup. 10mm came on the morning of the race and while the track was rated a Soft 6, it was closer to Heavy based on times ran on the day.

Even with the sun shining Caulfield Cup day, Racing Victoriaโ€™s track management policy and the addition of a horse like Homesman in the field could see a similar ‘softer than expected’ track delivered on the day.

Every race Mer De Glace has won t0-datewas on a Firm 2 track surface. With 1 run in the past on a soft track finishing 6th, and three runs on good surfaces finishing 3rd, 9th and 12th, there are huge queries over this horses ability to adapt to Australian conditions. While it certainly comes down to how the track conditions are on the day, a training track with similar conditions can take away from the development of such a horse and force the trainer to stick to the inside poly/syn track.

Mer De Glace is well under the true odds on everything we know to-date. If we get a sunny 30’C day and the track isn’t over-watered, Mer De Glace may just be a bet on race day.

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